Progress

I understand of course that the situation here appears rather worrying, but for us here (strangely) it's actually less so, mainly for the reason that we don't have to rely on sensationalist news organs to know what's happening. I copy below an email we received recently from our new boss at the Interac branch in Morioka. I trust it should allay most fears about the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

Interac have been very good. Hats off, they've set up a 24-hour help centre at their Tokyo office which we can contact to ask for help or advice. As you'll see below, they've also managed to confirm the health and safety of all of their employees: 1,600 people, no mean feat. I've been impressed particularly by the sender of this email, Bryan Barber, our new boss (the Morioka branch opened only very recently). I haven't met him yet but his emails have been sensible, well-informed and calming in a difficult time. He seems to be made of the right stuff.

I made my latest visit to the shelter in Noda today. A lot of progress has been made in clearing the town although a lot is still in ruins. I delivered some clothes, towels and other items which seemed to be gratefully received, although as always with the Japanese it is difficult to tell whether they are accepting them to avoid seeming ungrateful (there is no polite way in Japanese intercourse to refuse a gift, regardless of how desired it actually is) or whether they will actually be used. As they did turn down a few items but accepted the majority, I can hope they will be of use. Supplies are starting to reach the north east again as I believe several major roads and freight train lines have been reopened, so refugees' survival seems assured.

Re. staying, I believe I am acting with a reasonably clear head. Even in an absolute worst-case-scenario (which would require, as stated below, another earthquake and tsunami equal to last week's), namely all the reactors at Fukushima going into meltdown with a massive release of radioactive material into the environment, I am hundreds of miles from the site and at worst might have to stay indoors for a while. About that, I am concerned only very little. Regarding anything else, the only major problem at the moment, as it has been since last week, is a lack of gasoline. As, however, my nearby shops continue to be well-stocked this is a problem only insofar as I cannot leave the area for the time being. This is nothing more than a nuisance, and I am informed by the redoubtable Kenji that gasoline sale will resume, initially limited to mornings, thereafter all day, from the beginning of next week.

We have also just received the news that Interac has been given the contract for the next academic year by Iwate Prefecture Board of Education. As my schools want me to stay and were undamaged by the earthquake, this effectively means that I have a job for another year.

I can of course understand that many people are frightened, their families even more so, by the situation here, and with other ALTs am rather irritated by the fear-mongering of the international press with regards to the nuclear situation. Information like that below seems to be passed over despite coming from those who have no vested interest other than the maintenance of British nationals' safety and who are very well-qualified in judging the likely effect of current events on that safety. But, of course, it does not sell papers.

I have not decided to stay out of a heroic desire to stay and help the Japanese, although I will do so happily in the following weeks and months. It is because I do not think there is any reason to leave. The response of the people both locally and nationally has been exceedingly impressive: calm, organised and effective. I hope I can try to be the same to the best of my ability.

Email text below.

'Good afternoon Northern Tohoku ALTs,

I'd like to share some more information I have come across regarding the crisis in Fukushima.

Regular radiation level readings are being taken all across the country and as of yet there has been absolutely no sign of danger from radiation outside the 20km area surrounding the power plant in Fukushima. This includes all of Northern Tohoku. These readings can be found here: http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/incidents/index.html
Just click on: A diagram "Radiation in daily-life" on radiation doses: (March 16th, 2011)

I'd like to share with everyone some points clarified from a conference call made among others, a British citizen in Miyagi Prefecture and the British Embassy.

I have just returned from a conference call held at the British Embassy in Tokyo. The call was concerning the nuclear issue in Japan. The chief spokesman was Sir. John Beddington, Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, and he was joined by a number of qualified nuclear experts based in the UK. Their assessment of the current situation in Japan is as follows:

*
In case of a 'reasonable worst case scenario' (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 miles (50km) would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples' health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.

*
The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided. A further large quake with tsunami could lead to the suspension of the current cooling operations, leading to the above scenario.

* The bottom line is that these experts do not see there being a possibility of a health problem for residents in Tokyo. The radiation levels would need to be hundreds of times higher than current to cause the possibility for health issues, and that, in their opinion, is not going to happen (they were talking minimum levels affecting pregnant women and children - for normal adults the levels would need to be much higher still).

* The experts do not consider the wind direction to be material. They say Tokyo is too far away to be materially affected.

*
If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved after ten days, as the reactors' cores cool down.

*
Information being provided by Japanese authorities is being independently monitored by a number of organizations and is deemed to be accurate, as far as measures of radioactivity levels are concerned.

*
This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, an exclusion zone of 30 miles would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water in the region for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity levels in the food supply at that time or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion is in contrast to the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.

*
The Head of the British School asked if the school should remain closed. The answer was there is no need to close the school due to fears of radiation. There may well be other reasons - structural damage or possible new quakes - but the radiation fear is not supported by scientific measures, even for children.

* Regarding Iodine supplementation, the experts said this was only necessary for those who had inhaled quantities of radiation (those in the exclusion zone or workers on the site) or through consumption of contaminated food/water supplies. Long term consumption of iodine is, in any case, not healthy.

The discussion was surprisingly frank and to the point. The conclusion of the experts is that the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami, as well as the subsequent aftershocks, was much more of an issue than the fear of radiation sickness from the nuclear plants.

I want also to add some wonderful news in this message; as of today, all INTERAC ALTs in all branches have been accounted for, and are safe. We are all very fortunate and relieved.'